The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose while the Dow remained flat as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices toward $100 per barrel following a sharp rejection of Iranian terms.
Wall Street displayed a divided front on Monday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged higher by approximately 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained largely flat. The market action followed a record-breaking Friday, yet the momentum was tempered by escalating geopolitical friction. President Trump sharply rejected a revised peace proposal from Tehran, characterizing the terms as “totally unacceptable” in a move that immediately impacted energy markets.
Crude oil prices surged in response to the diplomatic impasse. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed over 3% to trade near $98 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude rose to approximately $104. The ongoing conflict has resulted in a near-complete stoppage of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan noted that the loss of 10 million barrels per day in supply has driven global inventories to near-record lows, placing significant pressure on the domestic economy. Goldman Sachs economists noted the global economy is currently “bending, not breaking,” though they warned that the likelihood of a U.S. recession remains 5% above pre-war levels.
Working households face a critical week as the focus shifts toward inflation metrics. The April Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, scheduled for release Tuesday and Wednesday, are expected to reflect how these elevated energy costs are permeating the broader economy. Economists anticipate headline price growth could jump from 3.3% to 3.8% due to the sustained oil shock, potentially complicating the path for future monetary policy. This comes as the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s low-tech forecasting models continue to outperform generative AI in predicting these inflationary shifts.
In the technology sector, the artificial intelligence trade continues to provide a floor for the major indices. Shares of AMD and Micron saw gains driven by data-center optimism, while the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) reached $6.5 billion in assets in just 36 days, outpacing the growth of early-2024 Bitcoin ETFs. Intel also maintained its upward trajectory, having recently surpassed Oracle in market capitalization following reports of a potential partnership with Apple and new technology collaborations with South Korea’s SK Hynix. Despite these gains, market breadth remains a concern; strategists pointed out that while the S&P 500 hit record highs, only 52% of its components closed above their own 50-day moving averages.
Corporate earnings provided some bright spots amid the geopolitical uncertainty. Fox Corporation, Barrick Mining, and Constellation Energy all reported results that exceeded analyst expectations for both revenue and net income. Meanwhile, the White House has reportedly invited major CEOs, including Tesla’s Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook, to join an upcoming summit in China. This diplomatic outreach occurs alongside domestic policy shifts, as President Trump recently endorsed a suspension of the federal gasoline tax to provide relief to consumers facing rising costs at the pump. As the war in Iran enters its fourth month, the intersection of high-stakes diplomacy and market volatility remains the primary driver for the American taxpayer’s bottom line.

